World Bank cuts Myanmar growth forecast as fuel shock deepens economic strains

What happened

The World Bank released a report on Tuesday cutting Myanmar’s real GDP growth forecast to 2.0% for the 2026/27 fiscal year, down from 3.0% projected before the global energy shock triggered by the war in Iran, according to DVB English. It noted the economy had contracted by an estimated 2.0% in 2025/26 and highlighted how recent surges in fuel prices have intensified economic pressures on the country.

The report attributed this downturn primarily to the sharp increase in energy costs, which has disrupted transport, logistics, production, and distribution sectors, while escalating foreign exchange demand for fuel imports. These shocks compound deep structural weaknesses and setbacks already visible before the crisis, including lower output, sales, and profits compared to pre-2021 coup levels and last year’s devastating earthquake.

Myanmar’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain amidst ongoing civil war, disrupted trade routes, volatile energy prices, and weaker export earnings, factors detailed in the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor. The country continues to grapple with political and military instability following the 2021 coup that overthrew Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government and triggered widespread armed resistance.

Known from the source

• The World Bank cut Myanmar’s 2026/27 real GDP growth forecast from 3.0% to 2.0%.
• Myanmar’s economy was estimated to have contracted by 2.0% in 2025/26.
• Fuel price increases linked to global energy shocks after the war in Iran have increased costs across multiple economic sectors.
• Economic indicators remain below pre-coup and pre-earthquake levels.
• Myanmar experienced a military coup in 2021, triggering nationwide protests and armed rebellion.

What remains unclear

Regime leader Min Aung Hlaing solidified his hold on power by assuming the presidency on April 10, following a military-run election that excluded major opposition groups and faced international criticism as illegitimate. Economic improvements in early 2026 began to stall as the regional and global shocks unfolded, compounding humanitarian and development challenges in Myanmar’s conflict-affected areas.

What remains unclear: Any direct evidence linking the fuel price shock to recent displacement or civilian impacts. Further details on how the civil war and energy price volatility are quantitatively affecting trade and logistics. Verification of the reported link between the global energy price shock and foreign exchange demand pressures. Ensure all names, dates, and figures are accurately cited from the World Bank report and DVB source.

Evidence note

Outside Brief has treated the source material as confirmed within the supplied source context, while retaining attribution to the original publisher.

Original source: DVB English. Open the source.