Poland's Law and Justice party splits amid growing debate over Ukraine

What happened

The Kyiv Independent reports that Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party, once the country's dominant conservative force, has split into two factions ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. The division followed months of internal disputes over Ukraine policy, military aid, economic issues, and the surge of far-right influence. The moderate faction led by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki broke away, forming a new party named Development Plus with about 40 lawmakers. Morawiecki also resigned as leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament on the day the split was confirmed.

Outside Brief is treating this as a source-led account. Any disputed responsibility, casualty figure or battlefield claim should be read as unconfirmed/hearsay unless confirmed by another reliable source. This fracture weakens PiS, which currently polls at 22%, down four points, while Development Plus stands around 5%, according to the Ewybory poll tracker cited by the source. Analysts such as Polish political scientist Jarosław Flis suggest the split could cost PiS dozens of parliamentary seats, potentially benefiting the incumbent liberal Civic Coalition government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The split also coincides with the growing strength of Poland's far-right parties, specifically the Confederation and the Polish Crown, the latter led by controversial figure Grzegorz Braun, known for incendiary anti-Semitic acts including extinguishing a Hanukkah menorah in parliament in 2023. Facing this challenge, Law and Justice has reportedly shifted further right in tone and policy under new leader Przemysław Czarnek, who is also PiS’s prime ministerial candidate.

Known from the source

• Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party has split into two factions ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections.
• Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki leads the breakaway faction, named Development Plus, with approximately 40 lawmakers.
• Morawiecki resigned as leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament.
• Polls show PiS at 22% and Development Plus at around 5%, indicating a weakening of PiS's electoral position.
• Far-right parties Confederation and Polish Crown are gaining support in Poland.

What remains unclear

The rise of far-right forces and the PiS party's rightward shift occur alongside a noted increase in attacks on Ukrainians in Poland, fueling tensions within a key regional partner supportive of Kyiv throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion. While Poland’s main political parties have condemned violence against Ukrainians, PiS has reportedly shown signs of adopting more anti-Ukrainian rhetoric since Czarnek assumed leadership.

What remains unclear: The exact number of lawmakers in Morawiecki’s new parliamentary group and their roles. Official confirmation of Przemysław Czarnek’s appointment as PiS prime ministerial candidate and party leader. Detailed polling data from independent sources. Verification of the extent and nature of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric under Czarnek.

Evidence note

Outside Brief has kept this brief source-led and attributed. Claims should be read alongside the original source linked below.

Original source: Kyiv Independent. Open the source.