New Gulf alliances shift regional dynamics amid Iran conflict, reports DW

What happened

DW World reports that new regional alliances are forming in the Middle East, centered around the evolving conflict involving Iran. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is moving closer to Israel, reportedly establishing a joint defense fund and receiving aerial defense support from Israel, while Saudi Arabia enhances cooperation with Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan, forming a distinct bloc with different regional aims.

According to the report, the UAE-Israel rapprochement includes a secret and unconfirmed visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE and a possible joint weapons procurement initiative cited from unnamed US officials. The UAE has denied some visit reports, indicating a complex and sensitive diplomatic environment behind these shifts.

The analysis included in the source outlines two emerging geopolitical groupings: a 'hexagon' formed by the UAE and Israel pursuing disruptive policies to reshape the region, and a 'diamond' consisting of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, taking a more transactional approach focused on economic stability and managed engagement with Iran and Israel. This division reflects long-standing regional divergences exacerbated by the Iran war.

Known from the source

• The UAE and Israel have reportedly developed closer ties and are collaborating on defense, including sharing aerial defense capabilities.
• Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu made a secret visit to the UAE on May 13; the UAE denied this visit occurred.
• Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are deepening cooperation, forming a separate bloc distinct from the UAE-Israel axis.
• Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal publicly warned about Israeli plans to escalate conflict with Iran, labeling the prospect damaging to the region.
• The UAE left OPEC in late April after 59 years of membership.

What remains unclear

Saudi Arabia’s stance underscores caution against escalating conflict, as articulated by former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal, who warned against an Israeli-led war that could devastate the region and impose Israeli dominance. This contrasts with the UAE's perceived willingness to back riskier strategic moves and armed groups, revealing fractures in Gulf state policies regarding Iran and broader Middle East order.

For editors: Verify the accuracy and confirmation of the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit to the UAE and the status of the joint defense fund from primary or official sources, as current information relies on unnamed officials and denial from the UAE. Review the tone and balance in describing geopolitical blocs and assess potential updates on Gulf state interactions given the fluid situation.

What remains unclear: Confirmation of Netanyahu's secret visit to the UAE beyond single-source reporting. Verification of the establishment and details of the joint UAE-Israel defense fund. Independent confirmation of Israel’s loaning of aerial defense weaponry to the UAE. Ensure proper attribution of statements and claims on Iran war and alliance dynamics to the correct sources.

Evidence note

Outside Brief has kept this brief source-led and attributed. Claims should be read alongside the original source linked below.

Original source: DW World. Open the source.