Israel’s election leaves government formation uncertain amid Arab party role debate

What happened

Al Jazeera reports that Israel’s recent election resulted in neither the governing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud nor the opposition coalition gaining the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. With nearly 80 percent of votes counted, Likud secured 54 seats, while the opposition under Gadi Eisenkot gained 49 seats. The Arab-dominated Ra’am and Joint List, holding 17 seats, could provide the balance of power needed to form a government, but both blocs appear reluctant to ally with them.

Outside Brief is treating this as a source-led account. Any disputed responsibility, casualty figure or battlefield claim should be read as unconfirmed/hearsay unless confirmed by another reliable source. Voter turnout reached its highest since 1999, at 77.7 percent, including an estimated 80 percent participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel, a demographic that constitutes about one-fifth of the population. This surge was partially attributed to the intensified marginalization of the Israeli-Palestinian minority following the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military response in Gaza, according to analyst Roi Zur.

The election exposed deep divisions, with both major blocs accused of running campaigns marked by strong anti-Palestinian rhetoric. The Likud party claimed without clear evidence that the opposition planned to rely on Arab parties to form a coalition, while opposition figures dismissed partnering with either Arab or ultra-Orthodox groups. These dynamics have complicated the path to government formation after the vote.

Known from the source

• Israel’s October 2026 election saw the governing Likud party win 54 seats and the opposition 49 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, short of a majority for either.
• Arab-dominated parties Ra’am and Joint List hold 17 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers.
• Voter turnout was 77.7 percent overall and around 80 percent for Palestinian citizens of Israel.
• The final official election results are expected by November 4, 2026.
• President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders and assign a candidate to form a government with a 28-day mandate plus a possible 14-day extension.

What remains unclear

President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult party leaders and designate a candidate for prime minister who will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible extension of 14 days. Failure to do so could trigger a new election, with the current government maintaining caretaker status. Analysts highlight several potential outcomes, including defections from right-wing opposition members, a unity government, or another round of voting.

What remains unclear: Verify final official seat counts and turnout figures once published. Confirm any formal coalition agreements or refusals by Arab parties or Israeli blocs. Check for any official statements regarding potential government formation procedures following the election. Ensure all attributions for campaign rhetoric and claims about Arab party alliances are clearly sourced and not asserted as fact.

Evidence note

Outside Brief has treated the source material as confirmed within the supplied source context, while retaining attribution to the original publisher.

Original source: Al Jazeera Gaza. Open the source.